THE BROADWAY BRIEF | January 11, 2026

Today’s Brief is about where the market refuses to adjust.

Playoff numbers don’t break because teams suddenly change who they are. They break because pricing stays anchored to regular season assumptions that no longer apply once pressure, environment, and intent shift. Red zone efficiency gets treated as permanent. Low totals get treated as identity. Regular season momentum gets treated as playoff comfort.

That’s where the edge lives.

This slate attacks those anchors directly. A total inflated by red zone efficiency that historically collapses in January. A home favorite whose Week 18 restraint is being misread as limitation instead of conservation. A shiny new playoff favorite carrying a price tag that ignores how pressure compresses margins. Alongside that, multiple college basketball totals built on pace assumptions that never materialize once execution and urgency take over.

No narratives.
No recency bias.
No guessing.

Just environments where the market priced expectation and the games are set up to resolve through control, compression, and resistance.

Sunday: 6–1 (85.7%)
Monday: 4–2 (66.7%)
Tuesday: 2–3 (40.0%)
Wednesday: 2–4 (33.3%)
Thursday: 3–1 (75.0%)
Friday: 2–3 (40.0%)
Saturday: 3–0 (100.0%)

7-Day Run: 22–14 (61.1%)
Since Dec. 19: 64–41 (61.0%)

Reminder: These are trend-based plays designed to give you the strongest possible context and background for each angle. They are not shortcuts and they are not blind clicks. The edge comes from understanding why the number behaves the way it does.

Do your homework.

Let’s get into it.