STRUCTURE OVER NOISE — A 3–2 LEDGER NIGHT

Result: 3–2 (+ units) | Losses Explained, Not Excused

Another slate where discipline beat noise. Three positions resolved exactly as modeled. Two didn’t — and neither undermines the framework.

Same process. Same exposure rules. Same edge.

✅ PLAY — UNDER 39.5 (The Broadway Ticket)

Army vs Navy
Final: Navy 17, Army 16
Result: WIN

Textbook service-academy suppression.

Compressed possessions, clock bleed, defensive familiarity, and red-zone inefficiency kept this game structurally capped from start to finish. Early movement didn’t translate into scoring, and the second half lived entirely inside a low-variance environment.

Even the decisive touchdown came through under-friendly sequencing — goal-line chaos and a must-convert fourth down, not sustained tempo.

Broadway takeaway:
This wasn’t rivalry magic.
It was possession compression.

Under cashes clean.

✅ PLAY — UNDER 38.5 (Broadway Brief Play)

Army vs Navy (Alt)
Final: Navy 17, Army 16
Result: WIN

Same ecosystem. Same outcome.

The market continues to price these games as if pace exists. It doesn’t. Late drama didn’t threaten the number — it validated it.

Broadway takeaway:
When structure is this clear, scaling responsibly makes sense.

✅ PLAY — UNDER 52.5 (Broadway Brief Play)

Washington vs Boise State
Final: Washington 38, Boise State 10
Result: WIN

This was a turnover-driven Under, not a pace-driven one.

Washington seized control early, but scoring came through possession replacement, not extended drive volume. Five Boise State interceptions shortened the game by eliminating possessions rather than elongating them.

Explosive scoring inflated the margin without inflating total play count. Once Washington sat on the game, tempo flattened and the number never came back into danger.

Broadway takeaway:
Turnovers kill Overs when they replace possessions instead of extending them.

Environment read was correct. Under holds.

❌ PLAY — UNDER 223.5 (Broadway Brief Play)

Knicks vs Magic
Final: Knicks 132, Magic 120
Result: LOSS

Call it what it was: an efficiency override.

The game stayed controlled early, but once New York seized late-third-quarter separation, elite shot-making overwhelmed the model. Pace didn’t spike — conversion rate did.

Jalen Brunson’s efficiency stretched the total despite otherwise sound structure. Injuries tightened Orlando’s margin and forced chase mode earlier than projected.

Broadway takeaway:
When one side refuses to miss, structure yields.
That’s execution variance — not a broken read.

❌ PLAY — OVER 5.5 (Broadway Brief Play)

Wild vs Senators
Final: Wild 3, Senators 2
Result: LOSS

Low-event hockey held almost wire to wire.

Scoreless first period. Controlled five-on-five play. Limited chaos. Ottawa’s offense came primarily via special teams, and Minnesota never opened the game up at even strength.

The late winner with 23 seconds left created drama — not volume. Regulation stayed suppressed, and the Over never found sustained leverage.

Broadway takeaway:
Late goals don’t equal high-event games.

The read leaned right. Variance said no.

🧠 FINAL WORD

📈 Saturday's Results : 3–2
📈 Since Launch : 8–3

This wasn’t about narratives or vibes. It was about environment, leverage, and discipline. Some nights efficiency steals one. Most nights structure gets paid.

No chasing.
No pressing.
No emotion.

We stay patient.
We stay selective.
We let the edge compound.

Back in the lab.