Opening the Year Under Control

Going into the New Year’s slate, Unc’s structure-based positions were built off the same late-cycle framework that’s been driving decisions since mid-December. Selective. Environment-first. Margin-aware. No reach, no volume chasing, no pretending every edge is equal.

This slate started hot. Early games executed exactly as modeled. Compression showed up, structure held, and the board opened clean. Then the late window turned to ash. 2–2 on the day isn’t a losing card to open the year, but make no mistake: we weren’t here to split. Since December 19, system plays now sit at 38–24, and expectation remains higher.

No hedging.
No revisionist math.

Here’s the audit.

✅ WINNERS

Alabama vs Indiana | UNDER 50.5 ✅ (CASHED)
Final: Indiana 38, Alabama 3 (41 total)

This was never live.

• January football doesn’t chase points. It imposes control.
• Indiana dictated terms at the line of scrimmage
• Once leverage flipped, risk tolerance vanished
• Alabama had no incentive or ability to accelerate
• Indiana never needed tempo to separate

This is the exact Under environment the market consistently misprices:
brand ceiling vs structural constraint.

📌 Pure compression. Total suffocation. No drama.

Texas Tech vs Oregon | UNDER 52.5 ✅ (CASHED)
Final: Oregon 23, Texas Tech 0 (23 total)

This was textbook compression.

• Blowout hangover triggered correction, not continuation
• Oregon managed risk with no incentive to press
• Texas Tech never introduced chaos
• Fatigue showed up as stalled drives, not pace
• Ranked matchup behavior kicked in: clock bleed over point chasing

The market priced the last game.
Structure priced the response.

📌 Quiet pace. Dead total. Exactly as modeled.

❌ LOSSES (LOGGED, NOT REWRITTEN)

Ole Miss vs Georgia | UNDER 55.5 ❌ (LOSS)
Final: Ole Miss 39, Georgia 34 (73 total)

This was a structure loss, not a bad read.

• Playoff games still compress by design
• Brand inflation kept the opener high
• Pace never exploded. Efficiency did.
• Short fields, a defensive TD, and fourth-down chaos flipped the script
• Extended-layoff and shortened-rest profile still did its job. Variance overrode it.

The environment didn’t fail.
Everything volatile just hit at once.

📌 Logged. Not rewritten. Onward.

Mavericks vs 76ers | MAVERICKS +2.5 ❌ (LOSS)
Final: 76ers 123, Mavericks 108

This one deserves zero grace.

• Cooper Flagg: 12 points in 37 minutes. Unacceptable usage. Zero impact.
• Second quarter was a 41–24 gut punch. Game script died immediately.
• Fade logic didn’t fail. Dallas did.
• No pushback. No resistance. No response.
• This wasn’t fatigue variance. This was uncompetitive basketball.

Philadelphia didn’t overcome anything.
They walked into a vacuum and took it.

📌 Bad execution. Bad effort. Burn the tape. On to the next slate.

📌 BIG-PICTURE TAKEAWAYS

• Finished the day 2–2. Not a losing card.
• Getting there required more work than this framework typically demands.
• Wins still came from clean behavioral edges the market mispriced.

The goal isn’t to avoid losses.
It’s to avoid lying about why they happen.

.500 on the card.
Process intact.
Adjustments logged.

And the framework moves forward.

-Unc